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An open explanation of every factor behind the 0–100 risk score. No black boxes — every weight, every formula, every data source.
Score formula
The risk score is a weighted sum of 8 independent factors, each normalised to a 0–100 scale before weighting. A score of 100 represents maximum possible risk across all dimensions; 0 represents theoretical minimum risk. No single factor dominates — every dimension contributes.
Each card shows the factor weight, how it is calculated, and what high or low values mean.
How it is calculated
Annualised standard deviation of daily log returns over the last 30 trading days.
High score
Rapid, unpredictable price swings — elevated short-term risk.
Low score
Stable recent price action, low short-term uncertainty.
How it is calculated
Same annualised standard deviation method applied over the past 12 months to establish a long-term baseline.
High score
The stock has been consistently volatile over the past year.
Low score
The stock has been historically calm — a stable long-term profile.
How it is calculated
Covariance of the stock's daily returns with SPY (S&P 500 ETF) divided by the variance of SPY returns over the same window.
High score
Amplifies market moves — rises and falls harder than the index.
Low score
Moves less than the market; less sensitive to broad market swings.
How it is calculated
Largest peak-to-trough percentage loss experienced over the 5-year price history.
High score
Has suffered severe historical losses — high downside risk.
Low score
Never lost much from its highs — strong capital preservation record.
How it is calculated
NLP tone analysis of the last 30 days of headlines from global news sources, scored as Positive, Neutral, or Negative.
High score
Predominantly negative news coverage — elevated headline risk.
Low score
Positive or neutral news flow — no significant media-driven risk.
How it is calculated
Relationship between the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages; a downtrend (price below both MAs) adds risk.
High score
Price is in a downtrend — momentum is against the stock.
Low score
Price is trending up above key moving averages — momentum tailwind.
How it is calculated
Structural risk classification of the stock's industry based on typical volatility, regulation, and cyclicality.
High score
High-risk sector (e.g. early-stage biotech, speculative crypto-adjacent).
Low score
Defensive sector (e.g. utilities, consumer staples) with stable cash flows.
How it is calculated
Average magnitude of post-earnings price moves over the last several reporting periods.
High score
Stock historically makes large moves on earnings — binary event risk.
Low score
Earnings reactions are muted — predictable, stable reporting history.
Four bands — each with a colour-coded label and plain-language description.
The stock shows low volatility, mild drawdown history, and positive or neutral sentiment. Suitable for conservative investors looking for stability.
Moderate ups and downs. The stock carries typical market risk. Suitable for investors comfortable with some price fluctuation.
Significant price swings, elevated beta or drawdown. Suitable only for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.
Extreme volatility, severe historical drawdowns, and/or strongly negative sentiment. Speculative — only for experienced risk-tolerant investors.
GlobalTrack pulls from three primary data providers to ensure accuracy and breadth.
Historical price data, OHLCV series, earnings calendar
Real-time quotes, company fundamentals, analyst ratings
Natural language explanations, news sentiment, plain-language insights
Important disclaimer
The GlobalTrack risk score is an educational tool designed to help retail investors understand quantitative risk metrics. It is not financial advice, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and should not be the sole basis for any investment decision. Past volatility and drawdown are not guarantees of future performance. Always consult a licensed financial adviser before investing.